While speculation rages on over the potential use of American boots on the ground in Iran, one of Tehran's neighbours from which there are serious indicators that action could be taken by the US military to launch a ground invasion from Turkmenistan.
Often excluded from analyses of regional conflicts, due to it being perceived as neutral, Turkmenistan may be the entry point of choice for US special forces missions.
This Tuesday, Democratic Party Senator Richard Blumenthal issued a furious and stark warning to the nation, following a classified briefing on the Iran war. "We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here", he asserted. Indeed, US President Donald Trump himself has refused to rule out this possibility.
Commonplace arguments against the viability of an American ground invasion of Iran generally consist of pointing out the nation's topography, noting that its mountainous terrain acts as a natural shield against invading armies. Therefore, land invasions are generally considered militarily unwise.
However, there have been arguments made to support the viability of special forces operations, which is where Iran's north-eastern border with Turkmenistan comes into play. It should be noted that the last empire to successfully conquer Iran, the Mongols during the 1200s, used this very same route.
In early February, Turkmen media reported on a development tracked by FlightRadar24, noting that US Air Force transport aircraft C-17A Globemaster III and MC-130 Super Hercules had landed at an undisclosed location inside Turkmenistan. Of particular concern was the arrival of the MC-130 Super Hercules, which is used for transporting special forces units, as well as performing night operations.
Another worrisome indicator is the growing relationship between Tel Aviv and Ashgabat over the past years. In 2023, Israel even inaugurated an embassy in Turkmenistan, located only 10 miles from the Iranian border, announcing a new era in relations. Although the central Asian nation is known for its wealth of gas resources, Israel didn't exactly indicate any interest in this, which makes sense considering Tel Aviv already receives around 60% of its energy needs from Azerbaijan.
Instead, the Israeli media were fixated on how this diplomatic landmark aided their posture against Iran. The Times of Israel even wrote that "Turkmenistan's border with Iran stretches for 713 miles (1,148 kilometers), offering Israel an enticing possible means of entry into the Islamic Republic as it tries to stop Tehran's nuclear program."
Neutrality In A World Of "Us Versus Them"
Turkmenistan has maintained diplomatic relations with Israel since 1993, however, these ties have greatly strengthened over recent years. Their cooperation has recently tightened in the areas of border protection and cyber security. The two also now work closely in the sphere of intelligence sharing and considering that embassies often work as intelligence operations hubs, it has to be assumed that the Mossad's influence has increased as of 2023.
Since the 2010s, Ashgabat has been purchasing Israeli military technology and has an arsenal of drones, consisting of the Aeronautics Orbiter-1K and Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) Harop. A newer addition to this arsenal has also been the Israeli SkyStriker drone, designed by Elbit Systems. While there are no official Israeli bases on Turkmen soil, reports have emerged speculating the presence of an Israeli drone base.
Although Turkmenistan vows an oath of neutrality when it comes to conflicts involving their neighbours, its history indicates that the lines can often become blurred as to how far that neutrality truly extends. Before being granted neutral status by the United Nations in 1995, the year prior it was Ashgabat that had become the first country to join NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program.
Then came the early 2000s and the US's era of endless wars, which began to unravel the myth of pure neutrality. Playing a balancing game between East and West, Turkmenistan originally resisted aiding the US war effort against Afghanistan, before it later caved, permitting its airspace to be used for refuelling and transport.
In 2004, Moscow even protested over reported US construction work at the Mary-2 air base in Turkmenistan, sparking further allegations that the US had "gained access to use almost all the military airfields of Turkmenistan, including the airport in Nebit-Dag near the Iranian border." Another detail revealed in the midst of the US war on Afghanistan was that a small number of US special forces officers had been operating in Ashgabat.
While there is no way to confirm the presence of US bases inside Turkmenistan, every so often there are reports that speculate the existence of unmarked American air bases in the country's vast desert lands.
The Turkmen government denies that such bases exist, however, the recent landing of a US aircraft that is designed to transport special forces units, is another indication that arrangements do take place between the US and Turkmenistan. It would also make sense, given the fact that the country has historically had US refuelling and supply operations, that there have been undisclosed bases there. This could work to explain why a MC-130 Super Hercules landed in the country.
Logistically speaking, if the US was to pursue the option of boots on the ground through Iran's north-eastern border, the closest targets would likely be near the city of Mashhad. The Iranian city even shares the Mary-Mashhad power line. Injecting special forces into Iran in this way would likely prove much easier than traversing the terrain of Iran's rugged mountainous north and west.
It could be argued that a great hindrance to such a strategy would be the deterioration of Iran-Turkmenistan ties, as the Central Asian country depends upon the Islamic Republic for a large portion of its food supply. As of the beginning of the current war, Tehran has cut off all such projects, like its gas for food exchange.
This is putting neighbouring Turkmenistan under strain, forcing it to turn to Russia as its chief food supplier. The US has been onto this, exploring alternate options to prevent the country from falling further into the Russian-Chinese sphere of influence.
Historically, Ashgabat's denial of collaboration with US forces has been in line with its policy of neutrality. For example, in 2015, then US Central Command chief Lloyd Austin remarked that "The Turkmens recently expressed a desire to acquire U.S. military equipment and technology to address threats to their security along their southern border with Afghanistan." Even this triggered a public denial.
Given the fact that President Trump has privately shown " serious interest" in the use of ground forces in Iran, paired with the way his offensive against the Islamic Republic has put allied nations at risk, upsetting Turkmenistan would be in character with the administration's actions. The lack of consultation with the Persian Gulf Arab States even managed to trigger both private and public complaints, especially emanating from Saudi Arabia.
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