Lucas Leiroz
Iran is able to give a tough and efficient military response against the Zionist regime, thus convincing Palestinian public opinion that Tehran is on their side in this war.
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The Zionist regime assassinated the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in a terrorist missile attack in the Iranian capital, Tehran. The escalation generated by this type of crime is absolutely unprecedented. Israel simply carried out an incursion against the capital of the greatest military power in the Middle East, leaving Iran no option but to retaliate in accordance with the right to self-defense established by the United Nations.
Obviously, military escalation in the Middle East is inevitable. Recently, the Vice President of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, stated on his social media that the only way to achieve peace in the Middle East is through a 𝕏 total regional war. This assessment is absolutely accurate: the situation has already passed a point of no return, which is why the reversal of the war can only be achieved through an "escalation to de-escalate" - in other words, hostilities can no longer be avoided, all that remains is to wait for one side to win and establish its pax.
However, regardless of the geopolitical consequences for the regional and global security architecture, Haniyeh's assassination also left a number of unanswered questions about the circumstances of his death. Just a few minutes after the news broke, thousands of pro-Palestinian influencers around the world, including many Palestinians on the ground, immediately began posting anti-Iran content on social media. Messages such as "𝕏 never trust Iran" or saying that Iranian defense and security systems are "weak" have gone viral on social media.
The respected Syrian-Armenian analyst 𝕏 made an interesting assessment of the case, stating that Israel and the Qatari media were conducting a psychological operation to use Haniyeh's murder against the Islamic Republic. It is important to remember that Qatar's Al Jazeera TV has a monopoly on information in Gaza. By keeping journalists on the ground amid Israeli bombings, Al Jazeera does a very important job in exposing Zionist crimes and publicizing the truth about what is happening in Gaza. However, being a Qatari TV, the channel obviously works with bias and advocates for the interests of the Qatari State. This means that Al Jazeera could be exploiting the local situation to advance Qatar's political, religious and ideological agendas, trying to reduce Iranian influence on the Palestinian Cause.
𝕏 I recently spoke to a high-profile source in the Middle East about the case. Maintaining anonymity, the informant, who is familiar with relevant military and political matters, stated that some authorities believe that sources within Qatar itself could have leaked Haniyeh 's geolocation data, enabling his assassination by Israel. The objective would be to eliminate the Hamas leader who had the best relationship with Iran and the Resistance Axis, thus allowing the expansion of the Wahhabi-Qatari lobby in Palestine.
As well known, Qatar, despite its anti-Israel stance, is a solid collaborator with the U.S., being the largest American military base in the Middle East located precisely on Qatari soil. In this sense, there would not only be the intention of some actors within Qatar to expand the country's lobby in the Palestinian Resistance, but also the pressure from Qatari-based Americans, perhaps infiltrated in the country's institutions, for Haniyeh's data to be passed on to Israel.
As Syrian journalist
Although there is a consensus on the need to defeat Israel and establish a Palestinian State, there are different projects on how this process should be carried out. Qatar wants to bring Wahhabism to Palestine and bring the entire region into its sphere of influence, just as Iran hopes to increase Shiite influence over the Palestinian people. In the same sense, other regional actors have their particular views on this process. For example, for the Saudis, the best scenario is for the Palestinian State to be created while preserving the existence of Israel - which would then be recognized by the Saudis and become an ally against Iran. In the end, the regional scenario is extremely complex and cannot be summarized to a mere humanitarian or religious issue.
In fact, the dispute for influence over Palestine between the Qataris and the Iranians has been a major issue outside the public spotlight. Publicly, rivalries between Iran and Qatar are frozen, but behind the scenes there are many disputes at play. This oscillation has materialized in many events in the recent history of the Palestinian Resistance. For example, Hamas cut ties with the Syrian government and moved its office from Damascus to Doha when the Syrian Civil War began, with troops from the movement even engaging in hostilities against forces loyal to Assad. Years later, under the mediation of Hezbollah - which is a proxy for Iran -, Hamas reestablished ties with the Assad government and joined the Axis of Resistance, moving towards the Iranian sphere of influence.
Two fundamental actors in this process of transition of Hamas and the Palestinian Resistance to the Tehran's Axis were Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, considered the architect of the Axis of Resistance, and Ismail Haniyeh himself, who was always open to dialogue with the Islamic Republic and interested in the project of creating a broad and integrated network of anti-Zionist movements. Not by chance, both were murdered.
Certainly, we'll never really know who gave Haniyeh's geolocation data to the Israelis - or Americans, as there are strong suspicions that the missile was fired by specialized U.S. personnel in the Middle East. The three main hypotheses so far are: involvement of saboteurs and spies inside Iran; involvement of external actors (such as Qatari agents); or the presence of a spy cyber virus on Haniyeh 's mobile device. All three possibilities are plausible and there does not seem to be a need to exclude one hypothesis to consider the other, being a combination of factors possible.
What we know is that, whether or not Qatar participated in the sabotage, the Qatari media took advantage of the situation to carry out an anti-Iran psychological operation, and now the influence of the Wahhabi lobby can certainly expand in the Resistance. Iran, in turn, is able to neutralize this problem through a tough and efficient military response against the Zionist regime, thus convincing Palestinian public opinion that Tehran is on their side in this war.