Martin Jay
Falling on its own sword must be a worry for both Israel and the U.S.
It's incredibly hard to decipher the recent events in Lebanon. First, it was pagers exploding and then more recently walkie talkies with now 20 dead and over 500 wounded. Although Israel doesn't admit the operation, it is clear their fingermarks are all over the operations and so it would be easy to assume that this was a huge success for Netanyahu. It has shocked Hezbollah and knocked out its communications, albeit temporarily, and showed both the Lebanese and the world that Israel is ahead of the Iranian-backed proxy. It was cunning, original and ingenious in its simplicity and its effectiveness. And such an attack has captured the imagination of the west's media who went overboard on its coverage.
Of course, media experts and the commentators they turn to can't tell what happens next. Many though are speculating that this is a prelude to an attack, an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah which is fought in southern Lebanon. The effeminate and self-obsessed Tom Fletcher, who used to be the UK ambassador in Lebanon previously offered no prescience or insight but just repeated the old clichés on BBC radio. Jeremy Bowen, a seasoned BBC Middle East hack offered more. Bowen warns that the rhetoric from Israel has been cranked up in recent days with even more military hardware moved to the Lebanese border - indicating that an invasion is imminent. He also warns though that Israel has a history of invading Lebanon and always leaving with a bloody nose, coining the cliché of going over the top of the abyss.
Indeed, falling on its own sword must be a worry for both Israel and the U.S.
Bowen is also careful to cover himself and add that the gadgets attack may well be part of an intimidation strategy which does not include a full-on invasion. No one really knows. A land invasion at least up to the Litani river must be on Netanyahu's mind though. One more time to break the curse, he might be thinking. His generals will also be keen on such a venture, which would explain the gadgets attack as many Hezbollah fighters were left blinded or partially blinded.
Yet there is another theory, which is not offered by the BBC which is that the pagers and walkie talkies were intercepted a long time ago in preparation one day for an attack - but that Israel received some intelligence that Hezbollah had discovered the ruse, or was about to. In such a scenario, it would make sense to detonate them both to capitalize on the victory and hope for the maximum amount of casualties.
But even on this level is it possible that the level of explosive added to both the gadgets was misjudged as the explosions themselves, in military terms, resulted in very few kills. For a few grams more, perhaps it could have been hundreds of Hezbollah fighters killed.
Lebanon is full of both Israeli spies and informers. The Israelis usually have excellent intelligence from there and know way more than Hezbollah like to admit. There is no question that this is a defeat for Hezbollah as it makes it look as though it has a lot of security loopholes with Mossad can jump through whenever it wants. Of course this will be tightened up now, but the stunt by Israel was genius and has left the Hezbollah leader looking phased and out of touch with his threats. Iran though is a bigger beast with more at stake. The bigger you are, the harder you fall certainly applies to Tehran. The Iranians have been humiliated by having their top commander assassinated by Trump while travelling; more recently, a Palestinian leader, while visiting Tehran, was also assassinated; and too many Hezbollah commanders have been killed by IDF/Mossad operations in Lebanon in recent months. Each time seasoned hacks in the region talk about Hezbollah and Iran taking their time to serve their cold dish of revenge to the West and Israel, but it is looking like Tehran wants to avoid an all-out war with the West at all costs. Strangely, this is also the objective of Biden, yet, if these recent attacks are part of a ground offensive planned as even IDF commanders are hinting how at an offensive "gravitating" towards Lebanon, then Tehran will have no choice but to up the stakes.
While it is true that the gadgets attack was impressive with its originality, we should never underestimate the moves that Iran might have in store for Israel's unremarkable infantry on the battlefield in Lebanon or even within Israel. The IDF has never achieved anything which can even be sexed up as a victory with its invasions both in 1982 and more recently in 2006. Hezbollah back in those days gave the IDF a humiliating beating within Lebanon and Israel would do well to note that its army of Lebanese fighters are even better today than before. It's a cruel irony for Israel, but its invasions only served to advance Hezbollah's ability as a disciplined army to cripple the IDF in war. In such a scenario, such a defeat would most certainly mean the end of any political rule of the elite in Tel Aviv, but may well mean the end of Israel as we know it. Is Netanyahu so deluded that he would risk such a move?