State of Play
After Nasrallah: Will Israel's Next Move Be a Ground Invasion of Lebanon?
There is a breaking story from Saudi news channel Al Hadath claiming that an unidentified man, traveling from Iran to Lebanon, met with Nasrallah shortly before the leader's death for the express purpose of shaking his hand. The handshake was purportedly intended to transfer a trackable substance onto Nasrallah's palm.
Who was the man? What was the substance? Perhaps it was a traceable radioactive isotope, detectable by a scanner hidden inside Hezbollah's headquarters, thereby confirming his location.
The Al Hadath report, as of now, cannot be independently verified. However, it has been widely disseminated by media outlets in the Arab and Hebrew world and is being used as a propaganda piece to reassert the deadly cunning of Israeli intelligence services, which was called into question after the intelligence failure on October 7.
Despite the infamous pager attacks, the targeted killing of senior Hezbollah commanders, and rumors of a sophisticated tracking operation, one truth remains: decapitation strikes don't win wars. If Israel and its allies want to classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, they should take a lesson from America's ill-fated 20-year "Global War on Terror."
Nasrallah was a controversial figure-hailed by many in the region as a symbol of anti-colonial resistance and by others as an agent of pro-Assad terror during the Syrian Civil War. Regardless of one's perspective, he was undeniably a dynamic leader who transformed Hezbollah from a guerrilla resistance force into the most powerful non-state military actor in the world. Now that he is gone, the question remains: What comes next?
Hezbollah and Lebanon are undeniably in shock following recent events, but the strategic situation remains unchanged-an Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon would be catastrophic for the Israeli Defense Forces. However, with the far-right government in Israel unwilling to consider a ceasefire or a two-state solution to the Palestinian question, their political options appear increasingly limited, leaving invasion as a likely course of action.
Despite Hezbollah being momentarily degraded, it will not cease its rocket attacks into northern Israel-a situation that has become intolerable for the Israeli public. As a result, a performative ground operation appears necessary, though potentially misguided. Following a series of successful attacks on Hezbollah leadership, the IDF and associated intelligence services now have the public's support and confidence to push forward with a limited offensive despite the long history of military failure in southern Lebanon. Israeli leadership believes this time will be different from the strategic defeat they suffered in 2006. With a limited window to exploit their recent victories, they see no better time to invade than now.
Tonight on State of Play, we'll delve into Israel's impending operation, its stated goal of dismantling Hezbollah's military infrastructure along the border, and the push to establish a "buffer zone" inside Lebanon-an inherently colonial term for military occupation. We'll also explore why such a ground operation could have catastrophic consequences for Israel.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media "influencer," though he hates the term.
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